Agencies Posted online: Tuesday , May 12, 2009 at 1643 hrs
London : Swine flu that has triggered global health scare has "full pandemic potential" and is fatal in around 4 in 1,000 cases making this strain of influenza as lethal as the one found in the 1957 pandemic, research by British scientists reveals.
The first detailed analysis by researchers at London's Imperial College, found that the virus spreads easily from person to person infecting around one in three of those who come into contact with it.
Professor Neil Ferguson the author of the research said it was too early to say whether the virus will cause deaths on a massive scale, or prove little more lethal than normal seasonal flu.
"Our study shows that this virus is spreading just as we would expect for the early stages of a flu pandemic. So far, it has been following a very similar pattern to the flu pandemic in 1957, in terms of the proportion of people who are becoming infected and the percentage of potentially fatal cases that we are seeing", said Ferguson.
"Swine flu is certainly milder than the Spanish flu which caused an estimated 50 million deaths in 1918, but it is not yet possible to say whether it will kill more than the most recent pandemics in 1957 and 1968", he said.
The epidemic of influenza A (H1N1) is thought to have started in Mexico on 15 February 2009. The data published in the journal Science suggests that by the end of April, around 23,000 people were infected with the virus in Mexico and 91 of these died as a result of infection.
The infected could be as low as 6,000 people or as high as 32,000 people, said Ferguson, who sits on the World Health Organisation's emergency committee for the outbreak.
However, the number is lower than would be expected for pandemic influenza, where 20-30 percent of the population are likely to become infected.
The research also found that adults have some degree of immunity against infection and children are more susceptible to infection.
"What we're seeing is not the same as seasonal flu and there is still cause for concern – we would expect this pandemic to at least double the burden on our health care systems. However, this initial modelling suggests that the H1N1 virus is not as easily transmitted or as lethal as that found in the flu pandemic in 1918," added Professor Ferguson.
Source: http://www.indianexpress.com/story-print/458132/ 
