Grain and food reserves

[Anonymous]

did the US recently sell a large amount of our strategic grain reserves?

how much grain and food does the US currently have in storage?

[beast]

i haven't seen anything out of the ordinary.

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MONTH-END ON TIME
We started the week's reports with our Monday weekly export inspection report showing 25.5 m.b. of corn was inspected for near-term export, up from 22.1 the week prior and four-week average of 24.

The worst drought in over 60 years in Mexico has helped U.S. exports as well as a faster harvest leaving Asia in for feed use. We still need sales over 30 m.b. weekly to have the trade turn price bullish.

Wheat inspections were 15.4 m.b., unchanged on the week and up 1.4 m.b. over the weak four-week average. Nothing here to get excited over, but enough to keep trend following funds still short 24 thousand contracts to look to cover or buy back more positions on their quest to reach a neutral position.

Soybeans remain the demand-driven star with inspections coming in a 73.7 m.b. inspected to be shipped near -term, up from 62.8 the week prior, 40 a year ago, our four-week average of 56 and we are now at marketing year inspections of 424 m.b. versus 315 a year ago. Of the 73.7 total China was in for 57.3 m.b. China continues to buy U.S. beans at a record pace as we predicted long before harvest began as they build reserves and overbook shipments as a hedge against crop problems in South America. I look for Chinas imports of U.S. beans to be greater in December . After the close Monday, the crop progress report came out showing the corn harvest at 68% complete versus the five-year average of 94%. South Dakota was 40%, North Dakota 21% and Illinois 60% more, proof that some acres will never get harvested and a lower production number on the December 10, 2009 U.S.D.A crop report is certain.

Bean harvest was less telling at 94% harvested. There is abandonment here but no area stands out , but a little here and there leads to 1%-3% will not come to market.

Wheat sees the winter wheat crop at 64% in good-to-excellent condition unchanged from the week prior and 65% a year ago. Only Texas, at 45% G-E, is suffering but the national number shows a crop in great shape, prior to going dormant in December

On the weather front, COMMODITYWX.COM sees potential for significant snow to fall in the Midwest late in the first week of December. We should have 15% or more of our corn sitting out there creating some concern at a time when traders will be getting long prior the December 10, U.S.D.A. monthly crop report in anticipation of lower production numbers.

Month-end, profit-taking set in Monday and Tuesday, pulling grains down just as we called for, but a low before Wednesday, should be bought as traders will return as buyers after Thanksgiving on several fronts. One, next week's foul weather , profit takeing money re-entering long for the new month and positioning for what should be feared to be a friendly-to-bullish crop report.

Markets are closed Thursday with shortened trading hours Friday. Friday also gives us our weekly export sales report which will be bullish for beans on Chinese business and corn will show last week's big Mexico purchases. I will post my next report Friday.


Source: http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20091124/grain-report.htm

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ps.     and    in minute.

[beast]

 SYDNEY, Nov 25 (Reuters) - U.S. wheat and corn futures rose on Wednesday as the dollar languished around six-week lows, recovering from a sell-off the previous day when grains were pressured by continued technical selling and worries about export prospects.

Soybean futures continued to climb on expectations of tightening supplies as China continues to import large quantities of U.S. beans.

FUNDAMENTALS

* The corn harvest remains historically slow, with forecasts for the next two weeks of weather not helpful. Continued rain with possible snow is likely to disrupt the already slowed harvest in the U.S. Midwest, a forecaster said on Tuesday.

* Corn was also under pressure after the CME Group said on Tuesday it would not limit the level of vomitoxin in Chicago Board of Trade corn deliveries as it had earlier announced.

* CME Group's move was viewed as bearish for the corn market because of concerns that U.S. supplies will be seen as low quality. Vomitoxin is found in moldy corn and can sicken livestock.

* Soybean futures rose on Tuesday due to strong world demand despite a downturn in the crude oil market.

* China, the world's top buyer of soybeans, is expected to retain its huge appetite for soy imports next year due to Beijing's pledge to keep shoring up local prices and a pick-up in soymeal demand. * Wheat futures fell 4.4 percent, the nearby contract's biggest one-day drop since Oct. 27, as plentiful supplies of the grain around the globe weighed on prices. Most buyers around the world view U.S. wheat as overpriced.

MARKETS

* U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday on lackluster economic data in a session marked by low volume and choppy trading, but losses eased after the Federal Reserve raised 2010 growth expectations. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 17.24 points, or 0.16 percent, to end at 10,433.71.

* The dollar fell to a six-week low against the yen on Tuesday after a mixed bag of U.S. data kept alive worries about an economic recovery, enhancing the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese currency.

* Oil fell nearly 2 percent on Tuesday to settle at $76.02 per barrel after data showed the U.S. economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace last quarter and ahead of weekly U.S. inventory data expected to show crude stocks rose.

DATA/EVENTS

* Australia Q3 construction work done (0030 GMT)

* German December Gfk consumer index (0700 GMT)

* U.K. Q3 gross domestic product (0930 GMT)

RELATED NEWS > Rain, snow seen slowing US Midwest harvest > CME backs off vomitoxin limits in corn > Wheat trade eyes normalcy after Egypt shakeup > Australia wheat exporters face challenges > Dutch grains trader files for bankruptcy > US farm income for 2009 seen 35 pct below '08

PRICES AT 0020 GMT Contract Last Change Pct Chg Day Ago MA 30 RSI CBOT Wheat DEC9 535.75 2.75 +0.52% -4.35% 528.04 52 CBOT Corn DEC9 378.25 2.25 +0.60% -2.91% 385.61 47 CBOT Soybean JAN0 1048.50 2.50 +0.24% +0.38% 995.18 66 CBOT Rice JAN0 15.27 -0.01 -0.03% +0.30% 14.47 65 US Crude JAN0 $75.95 -$0.07 -0.09% -1.99% $78.57 46 Currencies Euro/dlr $1.497 0.001 +0.07% -0.02% 1.488 USD/AUD $0.923 0.004 +0.47% -0.58% 0.919 (Editing by Clarence Fernandez) ((bruce.hextall@thomsonreuters.com; +612 93731236; Reuters Messaging bruce.hextall.reuters.com@reuters.net))

[Anonymous]

alot of grains being loaded onto the ships at tacoma

a definite drop in other shipping, I saw an article a week or so ago that there's been alot less coming and going...i think it was at the port's own website

the woowoo show on cable access here showed film of hundreds and hundreds of grain cars coming in on the trains and being loaded onto outgoing ships-- not much but food going out

we are selling a lot of grains, maybe because the dollar is down

I am expecting that this will be trickled down to the grocery price.  costco has 50 pounds of bread flour for a little less than $15--a great price and one i fear will not last.  my construction worker neighbor said he'd pick up a sack next time he goes there because I can't lift the sack.  Then I'll divide it into zip bags and throw it in the freezer.  neighbor said he'd even pay for the flour if I kept making the bread.  he said his family would rather have my bread than buy it and he'll get me whatever supplies I need.  "just keep it coming,  he said. 

a good excuse for me to bake bread twice a week. I just take a slice or two off the loaf before I give it to them.  I can't use a whole loaf by myself, so it works out good all the way around.

i am going to dad's for some turkey.  today was mom's birthday.  i didn't go to the cemetary but my siblings did.  first big holiday after all the grim reaper crap. I struggle at times.

we are so into our winter, rain and cold or foggy and cold.  nary a sun ray to be found.

I am working on the music list.  I will try to get it to you by friday.

 

[beast]

ok, good deal.
i'm off till Sunday. I'll be doing some visiting , but maybe only a chicken dinner instead of a turkey.

As i was drifting off to sleep last night there was a documentary on about Monsanto and how they monopolizing the seed industry world wide. Have you seen it?

[Anonymous]

didn't see it last night, but I did see one on cable access last summer specifically about how they are mucking up the crops in hawaii by getting the native crops contaminated by their genetically manipulated crops.  the hawaiians were really pissed about it in the show I saw


i'll try to email you tomorrow before I go... i'm pretty tired from all that's been going on-- appointments with the lawyer and the accountant -- I'm at the point in the estates that I can't do anymore myself and need to hire the pros-- lawyer is $250/hr, accountant $145/hr... probably going to be about 10k by the time i get all the 'pros' paid and the taxes paid...ugh, oh, well, guess it could be worse--dying is an expensive event

I can't keep my eyes open enough to concentrate...

  later gator

[beast]

  night

[Anonymous]

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[Anonymous]

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[Anonymous]

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[beast]

keep em coming 

[Anonymous]

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i wish it was easy to post youtubes at other places


I have to go....finally we are getting ready for dinner--i am so mad and upset

long story


be back in a few hours