Situation North Korea

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Fears mount that North Korea is preparing to attack the South
A South Korean woman walks along an oyster field, with a sea base for naval ships seen off Yeonpyeong Island

An oyster picker on a beach near the volatile Northern Limit Line where South Korean naval vessels are gathering
Richard Lloyd Parry on the Northern Limit Line, Yellow Sea

It was obvious that something was up when the Chinese scarpered. One day there were scores of their fishing boats hoovering up the valuable crabs from the richest of the fishing grounds in the Yellow Sea.

Overnight all but a handful were gone.

Anywhere else the locals would have been glad to have the crabs to themselves but this is no ordinary fishing ground. A few yards from here is the maritime boundary between South and North Korea. “The Chinese fish here because the North Koreans allow them,” a coastguard official said. “If they’ve gone it’s because they’ve had some kind of warning.”

An imminent missile launch into the sea? An armed incursion of North Korean ships? A full-scale invasion of Yeonpyeong, the small South Korean island hard up against the maritime boundary? Too much blood has already been shed in these waters for anyone to risk taking any chances, and for the past week South Korea has been dispatching reinforcements.

No one will discuss numbers for security reasons but sailors and marines, as well as members of the Sea Special Attack Team, the coastguard’s commando force, have been arriving to join the several hundred troops already on Yeonpyeong.

These waters, around the Northern Limit Line, have become the most tense and dangerous patch of sea in Asia.

The rest of the world is pondering what to do about North Korea’s underground test of a nuclear bomb eight days ago. Yesterday fresh reports emerged that the nation was transporting its most advanced missile, capable of reaching Alaska, to a launch site. David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, said that Britain and other members of the UN Security Council were drafting new sanctions against Pyongyang.

In South Korea the most pressing question is: what next? The nuclear test was just the most alarming in a series of growing North Korean provocations. In April the North launched a long-range rocket over the Pacific, and last week half-a-dozen short-range missiles were fired from launch sites across the country.

Pyongyang announced on Wednesday that it was pulling out of the armistice agreement that ended the Korean War — and at the weekend satellite pictures revealed that another long-range rocket was trundling towards the launch pad.

Precedent suggests that if there is still further mischief it may take place here in the Yellow Sea. Twice before, in the past decade, there have been naval battles between North and South off Yeonpyeong island — on both occasions in June during the peak fishing season for blue crab.

Shin Seung Won, 70, a fisherman from Yeonpyeong, was one of those who witnessed the last confrontation, when South Korea was hosting the football World Cup in 2002.

Thunderous explosions were heard out at sea. Soon a South Korean naval ship was unloading the bleeding bodies of dead and injured sailors whose patrol ship had come under fire from a North Korean vessel.

“There was blood everywhere, the sailors were in shock, and one of them had his leg blown off,” Mr Shin says. “It’s impossible to describe my hatred for those commie sons of bitches.”

Six South Korean sailors died, although they claim to have killed a larger number of Northerners — who had used the pretext of monitoring the Chinese crab-fishing vessels to cross the Northern Limit Line.

The South Korean Government of the day played down the action out of a desire to avoid derailing its “sunshine policy” of engagement with the North. The current conservative President, Lee Myung Bak, takes a sterner view.

There seems to be a sense among the security establishment in the South that the country has pussyfooted around the North for long enough and that, with Seoul’s undoubted superiority in equipment, supplies and training, it is time to assert itself. “If they fire two bullets at us we will fire three or four back,” a government official told The Times. “If they fire on us from a shore battery we will take it out.”

The danger of this is more escalation, and of a skirmish developing into a battle and then a full-scale war.
  http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6410160.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=797093

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U.S. forces plan to deploy drones in South Korea to improve reconnaissance over North Korea, the Dong-A Ilbo newspaper reported, citing Lieutenant General Jeffrey A. Remington, deputy commander of U.S. Forces Korea.

No date for the introduction of the Global Hawk unmanned aerial vehicles was given, the Seoul-based newspaper said.

North Korea should refrain from actions that may further increase tensions on the Korean Peninsula, Remington said, adding the U.S. Air Force in South Korea is “fully prepared” to repulse any provocation by the communist state.

U.S. and South Korean forces last month raised their military surveillance alert level after North Korea threatened a military strike in retaliation for South Korea joining a U.S.- led initiative to curb the spread of weapons of mass destruction. South Korea decided to participate in the Proliferation Security Initiative in response to North Korea’s second nuclear test.

  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=apThtfNIQdQM&refer=japan

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The U.S. military is  stepping up training and reviewing target sets in case the North Koreans decide to go to war.

As we learned last week, North Korea looks to be prepping for another long-range missile test, and South Korea has reportedly outlined plans to strike back if North Korea targets its warships. The U.S. military is also preparing for the worst; Aviation Week ace reporters Amy Butler and Dave Fulghum have an excellent rundown of stepped-up military preparations in the event North Korea follows through on its belligerent rhetoric.

Fulghum, reporting from Osan Air Base, South Korea, notes that the U.S. Air Force is identifying critical training fixes for close air support and air-to-air combat — two missions that would be critical in the first 72 hours of the fight. He also takes a close look at a first-day-of-the-war mission for joint tactical air controllers: XATK (pronounced “ex-attack”), the mission to destroy long-range, North Korean artillery.

Pyongyang has a lot of artillery tubes and rocket launchers parked north of the DMZ that could wreak havoc on Seoul. Col. Rick Forster, commander of the 607th Air Support Operations Group, tells Fulghum: “We’ve got a very good idea of where most of their pieces are … We’ve had 60 years to watch [the emplacement of North Korean artillery] and they can only put them in so many places.”

Forster would be the chief air liaison officer in the event of war; it would be his job to help coordinate air strikes before North Korean artillery can concentrating fire on South Korea’s capital.

Elsewhere, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency is boosting its sensor capabilities so U.S. decisionmakers will have more reaction time in the event of a missile launch or an actual attack. The U.S. military made a deliberate decision not to try to intercept a North Korean Taepodong-2 in April; it will be interesting to see if this time around MDA commanders deploy more missile defense assets or step up their alert.

  http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/06/us-preps-for-possible-showdown-with-pyongyang/

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U.N. Security Council Adopts Stiffer Curbs on North Korea
By NEIL MacFARQUHAR

UNITED NATIONS — The Security Council unanimously passed a resolution on Friday to tighten sanctions targeting North Korea’s nuclear and missile development programs, including encouraging United Nations members to inspect cargo vessels and airplanes suspected of carrying nuclear and other military materiel.

China and Russia, key North Korean allies, were heavily involved in drafting the resolution during the nearly three weeks since North Korea’s May 25 underground nuclear test, but they resisted making the measures mandatory, so it remains unclear to what impact the sanctions will have.

Pyongyang has shown itself able to withstand the pressure of sanctions in the past. But in trying to cut off all financial transactions related to the military, as well as imposing a complete arms export ban and almost total import ban, the Council is hoping to push North Korea to return to talks about dismantling its nuclear and missile development programs.

“The measures in this resolution are targeted very precisely at the nuclear and missile and weapons of mass destruction programs of North Korea,” said Ambassador Philip Parham, the deputy permanent representative for Britain. “They are not intended to restrict legitimate activity and trade and should not have an adverse affect on the already hard-pressed people of North Korea.”

The Chinese reluctance to implement stronger measures was based largely on concern about destabilizing North Korea and sending a flood of refugees out of the country. A collapse of the North Korean government could also, eventually, mean a unified Korea that is firmly in the American camp, an outcome neither China nor Russia might want to encourage.

Western diplomats suggested that recent military actions by the North Koreans had sufficiently alarmed Beijing and Moscow, however, for them to back tighter sanctions. “Their concern about it and indeed their anger about it is genuine,” said one Western diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was discussing the policies of another member state.

In addition, there was a sense that a message had to be sent to other countries like Iran which has its own nuclear program and has been ignoring Security Council sanctions designed to convince it to negotiate.

Still, a certain reluctance by the Chinese was also evident. They insisted on one loophole: allowing the North Koreans to continue to import small arms which they buy mostly from China, the Western diplomat noted.

more:

  http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/13/world/asia/13nations.html?_r=1&hp=&pagewanted=print

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N Korea threatens military action after sanctions

By North Asia correspondent Mark Willacy and wires


North Korea has responded angrily to new United Nations sanctions and is threatening to use its plutonium stockpile to build nuclear weapons.

The United Nations security council unanimously passed the new round of sanctions which include tightening an existing arms embargo, further restricting financial transactions by Pyongyang and the threat of cargo inspections on all North Korean ships.

The isolated communist regime has reacted furiously, warning that any interference with its shipping would be an act of war.

North Korea is also vowing to step up its uranium enrichment program and to turn all its plutonium into nuclear weapons.

The UN sanctions allow UN member states to inspect North Korean sea, air and land cargo, requiring them to seize and destroy any goods transported in violation of the sanctions.

A senior South Korean official says that North Korea may possibly respond to UN punishment with "another nuclear test and maybe more missiles".

"They will never, never give up their nuclear weapons," said the official who asked not to be named due to the sensitive subject matter.

more
  http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/13/2597408.htm

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That Long Range missile should be ready soon

Maybe this weekend.

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MOSCOW, June 19 (RIA Novosti) - A U.S. navy destroyer is getting into position to intercept a flagged North Korean ship suspected of carrying weaponry or nuclear materials in defiance of a UN ban, Fox News said on Friday.

Citing a senior U.S. defense source, the news channel also said that the USS John McCain would cut off the Kang Nam as soon as it left the area off the coast of China.

If the ship is carrying weaponry or nuclear material then this would be a violation of UN Resolution 1874. The ship is believed to be heading to Singapore.

The UN imposed sanctions on North Korea last week that forbid the import and export of nuclear material, missiles and all other weapons, with the exception of small arms. It has authorized the world's navies to enforce the ban. The sanctions came in response to a North Korean nuclear test on May 25.

However, the sanctions do not allow navies to forcibly board North Korean ships, only to halt them and request access.

North Korea has said that any attempt to board its ships would be taken as an act of war, which would be met with "one thousand-fold retaliation."

Tensions were further heightened on Thursday when a Japanese paper reported that North Korea was planning to fire a long-range ballistic missile in the direction of the U.S. state of Hawaii.

Japan's Yomiuri daily said, citing Defense Ministry analysis and U.S. intelligence, that the launch was most likely to take place between July 4 and July 8. However, it also said that the missile would be unable to reach the state's main islands.

   http://en.rian.ru/world/20090619/155299974.html#

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N Korea issues new coastal warning to Japan

* US official says suspected Pyongyang arms ship may be returning home

TOKYO: North Korea issued a fresh warning on Wednesday to Japan to stay clear of some of the communist country's coastal areas when Pyongyang conducts military exercises this month, the Japan Coast Guard said. The emailed message was seen as signalling more possible short-range missile tests at a time when North Korea is also thought to be preparing a long-range missile launch into Pacific waters short of Hawaii.

Pyongyang issued navigation bans for 10 ocean areas in the Sea of Japan (East Sea) and the Yellow Sea, citing “military gunfire and bombardment training”, said Japanese Coast Guard spokesman Go Nagai. The alert covers the hours 8:00am to 8:00pm from Wednesday until July 11, extending by one day the period in a previous warning. North Korea fired a rocket over Japan on April 5 and conducted its second nuclear test on May 25, before also launching several short-range missiles, earning the isolated state international protests and new UN sanctions.

  http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009\07\02\story_2-7-2009_pg4_5

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N Korea fires series of missiles

The missiles were test-fired from the east coast of North Korea  [AFP]

North Korea has test-fired four short-range missiles, the South Korean Yonhap news agency reports.

The move, which follows Pyongyang's recent nuclear test and subsequent UN sanctions, is likely to aggravate regional tensions.

The missiles were fired from North Korea's eastern coast on Thursday, South Korean defence ministry officials were quoted as saying.

Al Jazeera's Steve Chao, reporting from Seoul, the South Korean capital, said the launches involved short-range, surface-to-ship, modified Silkworm missiles.

He said the launches came as no surprise because North Korea had previously warned that it would conduct military drills on its eastern coast.

"Many people took this as a sign that they were about to test missiles," he said.

"Here in Seoul, the government was expecting this.

"Earlier in the day, South Korea's police administration heightened the alert level, they began showing military drills in case of war and they also began showing anti-terrorism drills - a sign of how high the tensions are here on the Korean peninsula."

Growing tensions

North Korea had earlier issued a no-sail zone in waters off its east coast through July 10.

Our correspondent said the announcement has given the North several more days to potentially test more missiles.

The missile launches come a week after the US extended economic sanctions against North Korea for another year as tensions grew over the communist state's nuclear activities.

Barack Obama, the US president, moved to prolong restrictions on property dealings with the North that were due to expire on June 26.

Obama said he acted "because the existence and risk of the proliferation of weapons-usable fissile material on the Korean peninsula continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States".

Despite the US administration saying that it would welcome fresh talks with the North, relations between the two continue to deteriorate amid international condemnation and sanctions in response to its recent nuclear test, and defiant rhetoric from Pyongyang.

North Korea warned in June that it would increase its nuclear activities and could launch military action against the US and allies after the UN Security Council announced new sanctions over Pyongyang's May atomic test.

The UN resolution banned all weapons exports from North Korea and authorised member states to inspect sea, air and land cargo, requiring them to seize and destroy goods that violate the sanctions.

North Korea's nuclear test in May defied a previous UN Security Council resolution adopted after the North's first underground nuclear test in October 2006.
  http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia-pacific/2009/07/20097212297347204.html

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North Korea may be about to carry out another nuclear test, the British ambassador in Pyongyang has said.

North Korea carried out a nuclear test in May - a move that experts said put it closer to having a working nuclear bomb.

"We cannot rule out that a further nuclear test will take place," said Peter Hughes, the British ambassador to North Korea.

"Yesterday, two short-range missiles were launched and you'll have seen reports that there may be a launch of an ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) in the coming days or weeks," he said.

North Korea's rocket launch in April was widely seen as a disguised long-range missile test that violated UN resolutions banning it from ballistic missile launches.

It test-fired short-range missiles on Thursday. Officials and news reports in South Korea said four short-range missiles had been fired.

Last month, the United Nations Security Council approved wider sanctions against North Korea over the nuclear test, banning all weapons exports from the hermit state and most arms imports.

Mr Hughes said North Korea's response to British concerns over its recent actions had been that "the threat towards their country is intensifying and they have no other option but to strengthen their deterrent".

"I have seen no willingness on their part to re-engage in negotiations whatsoever," he said.

But he said Britain hoped that "sanctions, together with the wider framework of measures, ... will put sufficient pressure on the DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) to reconsider its position on negotiations".
  http://itn.co.uk/9d349dc61bb51bd6de139e2347e9c9b7.html

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Jones: U.S. plans coordinated response if North Korea fires missile
By MARGARET TALEV AND STEVEN THOMMA
McClatchy Newspapers

If North Korea fires a missile at Hawaii on or around the July Fourth holiday, as Japanese reports have warned, the U.S. plans a measured response in coordination with Russia, China, Japan and South Korea.

In an exclusive interview with McClatchy Newspapers, White House national security adviser James L. Jones said of North Korea and its erratic communist dictator Kim Jong Il: "Our reaction will be dependent on what it is they do over the next few days, few weeks, whatever it is."

Jones said the U.S. has "looked at a range of options that we have at our disposal" and is maintaining "an open and constant dialogue" with Russia, China, Japan and South Korea, all of whom share regional interests.

Recent Japanese reports said that North Korea plans a missile attack on Hawaii, about 4,500 miles distant, around July 4. As of Thursday, however, U.S. experts on North Korea said there's no evidence of an impending long-range launch.

"It usually takes several days to fuel and prepare it," said Bruce Klingner, a senior research fellow specializing in Northeast Asia for the Heritage Foundation, a conservative research organization. Klingner said that North Korea either might be looking at a later date, or might instead launch short-range Scuds or intermediate-range ballistic missiles. Either would violate a United Nations resolution, but neither could reach Hawaii.

Experts said they don't think North Korea has the capability to reach Hawaii, but Defense Secretary Robert Gates ordered special radar and missile-defense technology to Hawaii days ago just in case.

North Korea on Thursday reportedly test-fired four short-range missiles that flew about 60 miles before falling into the sea. Those followed a May 25 underground nuclear test and an April 5 rocket launch. The U.N. imposed economic sanctions on the communist regime following the nuclear test.

North Korea launched a long-range Taepodong-2 missile on July 4, 2006, but it failed in less than a minute, falling harmlessly into the Sea of Japan, along with five shorter-range missiles.

Chaibong Hahm, an expert on the region for the RAND Corporation, said the Obama administration's emphasis on consensus-building with allies in the region shows its desire to reassure allies that the U.S. doesn't want to act unilaterally.

Persuading China to toughen its stance on North Korea continues to remain a challenge for the U.S., however. "The only way to get anything done here is to get all the regional powers in there together, talking and thinking and acting," Hahm said. "Until now, North Korea has really exploited" divisions among its neighbors.

Even if North Korea does fire a missile toward Hawaii, Hahm said, "I think at this point there's very little that we can do. It will be another round of global international coordinated condemnation." The value in that, he said, is "to make sure that the Chinese and Russians are on the same page and everyone realizes North Korea is a serious issue."

There are concerns that North Korea could gain the ability to fire long-range missiles successfully over time. U.S. officials also are concerned about a regional nuclear arms race.

In addition, Jones emphasized that any international response to North Korea will also send a signal to Iran, which has its own nuclear ambitions that President Barack Obama wants to keep in check.

"What we do in North Korea is going to be watched very carefully by Iran and they'll draw conclusions there," Jones said. "So there's some metrics here that are really pretty global."

In an interview Thursday with The Associated Press, Obama described recent cooperation with Russia and China on North Korea as "fairly remarkable" and said that "the sanctions regime after the nuclear tests and the missile launches by North Korea have been robust in part because Russia and China have been willing to go further than they've been willing to go in the past."

Obama told The AP there "potentially is room for more later" in terms of getting Russia and China to agree to tougher sanctions on North Korea. However, Obama said, "What we're also trying to do is to keep a door open for North Korea to start acting in a responsible way, to recognize that a denuclearized Korean Peninsula is the only way that they are going to achieve the kind of commercial ties and development opportunities that can be good for their people. And we want them to know that path is still available."

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs on Thursday declined to discuss intelligence on North Korea, but said that "the impact alone of a united international community is tremendously important."

"I take the North Koreans at their word that they're going to continue their provocative actions," Gibbs said. "What's important is that the international community is united in isolating those actions ... and ensuring that proliferation of weapons and material from North Korea to other countries doesn't take place."
  http://www.kansascity.com/444/v-print/story/1303294.html

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SEOUL, South Korea (AP) - A news report says North Korea has fired two mid-range missiles off it eastern coast.

Yonhap news agency's report says the launches Saturday appeared to be of Scud missiles. The agency quotes a South Korean government official it did not identify.

The official says the missiles fired were estimated to have a range of about 300 miles (500 kilometers).

North Korea fired four short-range missiles off the east coast on Thursday.

Speculation has been high that the communist country might launch more missiles in coming days.

  http://www.necn.com/Boston/World/2009/07/03/Report-NKorea-fires-2/1246669586.html

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N. Korean Ship Searched for Radioactive Material
By LYDIA POLGREEN

NEW DELHI — Indian authorities have detained a North Korean vessel and are searching it for radioactive material, the first time a ship has been seized and boarded under sanctions adopted by the United Nations Security Council in June.

The cargo ship, M V San, was spotted Friday, officials said, and detained under the authority of the United Nations resolution passed after North Korea tested a nuclear device in May.

The ship anchored without authorization in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, a territory of India in the Bay of Bengal, last week, according to the Indian military.

Indian officials said it was carrying more than 16,000 tons of sugar bound for the Middle East. But the ship’s proximity to Myanmar, a North Korean ally, and the fact that it had no apparent reason to be in the area raised suspicions.

The coast guard intercepted the ship after chasing it for six hours, and detained 39 North Korean crew members.

After two days of searching and of questioning the crew, India’s Navy and Coast Guard handed the ship over to police and intelligence services, having found no evidence of illegal cargo, according to the Press Trust of India.

Ashok Chand, a senior police officer in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, told Reuters that further tests were being conducted.

But it remains a mystery why the ship was in Indian waters at all.

India has watched warily for signs that North Korea is helping Myanmar build a nuclear reactor.

Adm. Sureesh Mehta of the Indian Navy told reporters in Delhi over the weekend that “the ship had no business to be there.”

The Security Council resolution, intended to punish North Korea for its nuclear test, forbids North Korea to traffic in a wide range of nuclear and conventional weaponry and calls on United Nations members to search North Korean ships, with the crews’ consent, if there are “reasonable grounds” to suspect that banned cargo is aboard.

The United States Navy tracked a North Korean freighter suspected of carrying banned cargo for about three weeks in June and July. As an American destroyer shadowed the ship, North Korea said it would consider its interception an act of war.

The ship, believed to be heading to Myanmar, finally turned back to its home port without incident.

Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, has long been suspected of buying North Korean arms as well as providing transit services for North Korean vessels engaged in illicit trade.

  http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/11/world/asia/11korea.html?_r=1&hp#